В электронном средстве массовой информации Mining.com.au (Австралия) опубликована аналитическая статья о деятельности Навоийского горно-металлургического комбината.

С этой статьей можно ознакомиться по следующей ссылке:

https://mining.com.au/the-worlds-fourth-largest-gold-producer-youve-never-heard-of/

Также прилагается полный текст статьи на английском языке:

WRITTEN BY Scott North

The world’s fourth largest gold producer you’ve never heard of

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Mining.com.au, its affiliates or the companies Scott North is associated with.

Quick question, can you name the world’s fourth-largest gold producer? If you guessed Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) or AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU), you’d be incorrect. The answer is a company that most people within the resource industry have never heard of, operating from a landlocked central Asian nation that was, until recently, one of the world’s most closed economies.

Yet this mystery giant produces over 3 million ounces of gold annually from a mine so vast it’s visible from space, generates more revenue than many ASX-listed miners combined, and is preparing to make its grand debut on the London Stock Exchange.

Meet Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC), an Uzbek state-owned behemoth that’s been hiding in plain sight for decades. While the mining world obsesses over the latest junior explorer or the next rare earth element discovery, NMMC has been quietly building one of the most impressive mining empires on the planet.

With 2024 revenues of US$7.4 billion ($11.3 billion) and an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin that would make any CFO melt, this is a story that’s about to rewrite the mining narrative with its upcoming listing in London. This represents a potential solution to London’s IPO stagnation and a rare glimpse into a resource powerhouse that’s been operating behind the iron curtain of state secrecy for over six decades.

The question isn’t whether Navoi will list in London, it’s whether the city is prepared for what could be the biggest mining debut in years.

From Soviet secret to global powerhouse

To truly understand Navoi, you need to travel back to 1958, when Nikita Khrushchev’s Soviet Union was racing to secure strategic resources in the aftermath of Stalin’s death. The establishment of the Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Combine wasn’t another industrial project, it was a key piece of Soviet economic strategy, designed to transform the remote Kyzyl Kum desert into an Aladdin’s cave of strategic minerals.

This was the era of grand Soviet projects, when entire cities were constructed around single industrial complexes, and Navoi was intended to be the crown jewel of the USSR’s mining ambitions.

The late 1950s marked the height of the Cold War’s resource race, with both superpowers scrambling to secure uranium for their nuclear programs and gold for their strategic reserves. What the Soviet geologists discovered in the Uzbek desert exceeded their wildest expectations. The Muruntau deposit, first identified through systematic geological surveys, revealed itself as a geological anomaly of staggering proportions.

For the subsequent three decades, NMMC operated as a classic Soviet “kombinat” – a massive, vertically integrated enterprise that controlled everything from geological exploration to the final refined product. It reminds me of the vertically integrated Chinese battery manufacturers that have come to the market over the past 10 years.

The company isn’t just a gold company. It has built entire supply chains, trained generations of metallurgists, and developed processing technologies that remain competitive today. This approach bears striking similarities to the fully integrated Chinese battery manufacturers we see today. The secrecy surrounding its operations was legendary even by Soviet standards. Western intelligence agencies understood that something significant was occurring in the Uzbek desert, but the true scale remained hidden behind layers of state security.

The crown jewel of this empire, then and now, is the Muruntau mine. Discovered in the late 1950s but not fully developed until the 1960s, it’s a geological wonder. It stretches over 3.3km in length, 2.5km in width, and plunges more than 600m deep. The scale is so large that astronauts on the International Space Station can spot it with the naked eye. With estimated reserves of 150 million ounces, that’s a deposit that contains more gold than most countries will ever produce.

However, Muruntau is just the beginning of the story. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 could have spelled disaster for NMMC, as it did for many state-owned enterprises across the former USSR. Instead, it marked the beginning of a slow, careful transformation.

The Zarafshan-Newmont joint venture in 1995 was more than just a business deal, it was Uzbekistan’s first tentative step into the global mining community. Newmont, brought Western technology and expertise to a company that had been operating in isolation for nearly four decades. The partnership was a landmark moment, proving that Soviet-era assets could compete on the global stage when properly managed and financed.

A financial juggernaut awakens

Fast forward to today, and the numbers emerging from Navoi present an impressive financial picture. The company’s 2024 IFRS financial results, a crucial step toward the transparency demanded by international public markets, reveal a financial powerhouse that outperforms many Western miners.

Record revenue of US$7.4 billion represents a significant 29.8% increase from the previous year, driven not just by higher gold prices but by operational excellence that’s been decades in the making. An adjusted EBITDA of US$4.6 billion translates to a margin of 62%, a figure that would make shareholders of major Western miners question their companies’ performance. Net profit of US$2.1 billion represents a 40% increase year on year, demonstrating that this isn’t simply about riding the gold price wave, they have been building operational efficiency that’s been refined over decades.

The company’s all-in sustaining costs of US$979 per ounce, while up from the previous year, remain among the lowest in the industry – a real show of strength to the deposit Muruntau is and the operational expertise built up over generations.

Uranium production, managed through the separate Navoiyuran entity, positions Uzbekistan as one of the world’s top uranium suppliers, with long-term contracts feeding nuclear programs from South Korea to India. The company’s copper, silver, and rare earth element operations provide additional revenue streams that many pure play gold miners can only dream to achieve. This diversification isn’t accidental; it’s the result of decades of systematic resource development across one of the world’s most mineral-rich regions.

The investment story becomes even more compelling when you consider the company’s capital allocation strategy. Capital expenditure of US$914 million in 2024, up 34.6% from the previous year, isn’t being allocated to speculative projects or empire-building exercises.

Instead, it’s being systematically deployed to increase production at existing mines and explore near-mine targets where the geological understanding is already well established. This disciplined approach to growth, combined with a debt to EBITDA ratio that improved from 0.7x to 0.5x, demonstrates the kind of financial discipline that institutional investors seek but rarely find in the mining sector.

London’s golden ticket or geopolitical gamble?

The details surrounding Navoi’s London listing remain somewhat opaque, but what we do know suggests this could be one of the most significant mining IPOs in recent memory. Initial reports from The Times show a picture of a substantial offering of up to 15% of the company with a valuation as high as US$25 billion.

More recent intelligence suggests a more conservative approach, with around 5% of the company being offered at a valuation closer to US$20 billion. Either way, we’re discussing a transaction that would dwarf most recent mining listings and provide the London Stock Exchange with exactly the kind of large deal it desperately needs.

The banker bros tell their own story about the seriousness of this undertaking. When Citi, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan – the holy trinity of investment banking – all sign up for a deal, you know the market is taking notice. Their involvement suggests months of due diligence, regulatory discussions, and strategic planning that goes far beyond a simple privatisation exercise.

Rothschild’s role as advisor to the Uzbek government adds another layer of credibility, bringing decades of experience in complex sovereign transactions to what is essentially a coming-out party for Uzbekistan Inc. The dual listing strategy of London and Tashkent simultaneously is particularly clever. It ensures that local investors can participate in what is, after all, their national champion, while providing international investors with the liquidity and regulatory framework they demand.

For a company that has operated in relative darkness for decades, this represents a fundamental shift in strategy which is from state secret to public company. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the IPO timing is its intersection with broader geopolitical trends.

As Western governments scramble to secure supply chains for critical minerals, a company like Navoi, with its diversified portfolio of strategic metals, becomes more than just an investment opportunity. It becomes a strategic asset. The fact that Uzbekistan, under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s reforms, is positioning itself as a bridge between East and West makes this listing even more significant.

For the London Stock Exchange, the timing couldn’t be more perfect. After enduring headlines about IPO droughts and losing listings to New York, the prospect of landing a US$20-25 billion mining giant represents a much-needed shot of credibility. London has always prided itself on being the global center for mining finance, but that position has been under pressure from competing exchanges and changing market dynamics. A successful Navoi listing would send a clear message: when the world’s hidden mining giants decide to go public, they still choose London.

A golden opportunity with a uranium-sized health warning

So, is Navoi the solution that London’s mining community has been waiting for? The investment case is there. Here’s a company with world-class assets, proven operational excellence, and financial metrics that would attract any PM. The geological advantages of Muruntau which are low-cost, long-life, and scalable provide the kind of competitive moat that’s increasingly rare in the mining industry. Add in the diversified revenue streams from uranium, copper, and other strategic metals, and you have an investment proposition that checks every box on the institutional investor checklist.

The corporate governance improvements are also encouraging. The appointment of independent directors like Jon Ferrier, the former CEO of Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE:GKP), shows a genuine commitment to international best practices. Ferrier isn’t just a token appointment, he’s a respected figure in the resources sector with a track record of navigating complex jurisdictions and building shareholder value.

But… and there is always a but, we’re still speaking about a state-owned enterprise from a country that most investors couldn’t locate on a map. Uzbekistan’s transformation under President Mirziyoyev has been remarkable, but it’s still a work in progress. The shadow of larger neighbours, particularly Russia and China, creates geopolitical risks that can’t be ignored. While the company is keen to promote its ESG credentials, including a target of 21% renewable energy by 2026, the environmental legacy of Soviet-era mining practices presents ongoing challenges that will require significant capital investment to address.

The resource nationalism risk, while currently low given the government’s privatisation agenda, remains a long-term consideration. What happens if commodity prices continue to spike and political pressure mounts to keep more of the wealth at home? What happens if geopolitical tensions escalate and Uzbekistan finds itself caught between competing spheres of influence? These aren’t theoretical concerns, they’re the kind of tail risks that can transform a compelling investment story into a cautionary tale overnight. We see this time and time again in West Africa.

Yet for all these risks, the potential rewards are LARGE. For investors, this represents a rare opportunity to gain exposure to a world-class, low-cost producer with a diversified mineral portfolio at what could prove to be an attractive entry point. For London, it’s a chance to demonstrate that it could be the pre-eminent global destination for mining finance, capable of attracting and successfully listing companies from the most unexpected corners of the world. For Uzbekistan, it’s a crucial step in its journey from Soviet satellite to modern market economy, a signal to the world that this central Asian nation is open for business.

The Navoi IPO is ultimately more than just a financial transaction or a normal listing which we are seeing more and more of globally, it’s a story about the shifting dynamics of the global economy, the emergence of new players on the world stage, and the enduring appeal of real assets in an uncertain world.

Whether it proves to be profitable for investors remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, when this central Asian giant finally makes its London debut, the mining world will be watching very closely indeed. The question isn’t whether Navoi will succeed, it’s whether the rest of us are prepared for what success might look like.